濱岡 豊｢COVID-19 対策の諸問題(1) 日本の特異性｣
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･白黒で掲載された図をカラーで掲載しています｡クリックで拡大されます｡原稿作成時時点でのデータです(2020年8月末頃)｡
国名の下の数字は人口｡日本の検査数は累積のみが公開されているので､差分をとって1日あたりを算出｡
各図の下部の数字の上段は累積検査人数/累積陽性者数/累積死亡者数/累積陽性率｡
上段は1日あたりの検査人数/陽性者数/死亡者数/陽性率の最大値｡
[1] WHO “SITUATION REPORT – 1” https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4 (以下､日付がないものは2020年8月15日アクセス)
[1] WHO “Situation Report – 209“ https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200816-covid-19-sitrep-209.pdf?sfvrsn=5dde1ca2_2
[1] https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
なお､日本の検査データについては欠損値が多いため厚労省のページから取得した｡
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/0000121431_00086.html
[1] 感染者の一部が検査によって陽性者として見いだされる｡以下､検査によって見いだされた者を｢陽性者｣､そのうち厚労省のデータについては｢患者｣､モデルや概念におけるこれらを包含するすべてを｢感染者｣と呼ぶ｡
[1] 縦横軸とも常用対数を取っているので､log10(死亡者数)=βlog10(陽性者数)という関係があることになる｡
[1] 例えば2020年3月16日WHO事務総長Tedros氏は” But we have not seen an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing – which is the backbone of the response.”” Once again, our key message is: test, test, test.”と述べた｡ https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---16-march-2020
[1] スエーデン､ドイツ､中国なども興味深いが､このサイトでは日次の検査データが公開されていない｡
[1] 安倍総理の春節祝賀ビデオメッセージ https://nettv.gov-online.go.jp/prg/prg18405.html
[1] WHOの事務総長の3月2日の会見
” The epidemics in the Republic of Korea, Italy, Iran and Japan are our greatest concern.”
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---2-march-2020
[1] WHOの事務総長3月18日の会見｡
”A month ago, the Republic of Korea was faced with accelerating community transmission. But it didn’t surrender.
It educated, empowered and engaged communities;
It developed an innovative testing strategy and expanded lab capacity;
It rationed the use of masks;
It did exhaustive contact tracing and testing in selected areas;
And it isolated suspected cases in designated facilities rather than hospitals or at home.
As a result, cases have been declining for weeks. At the peak there were more than 800 cases, and today the report was only 90 cases.
WHO is working in solidarity with other countries with community transmission to apply the lessons learned in Korea and elsewhere, and adapt them to the local context.”
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---18-march-2020
[1] WHOの事務総長3月18日の会見｡
”A month ago, the Republic of Korea was faced with accelerating community transmission. But it didn’t surrender.
It educated, empowered and engaged communities;
It developed an innovative testing strategy and expanded lab capacity;
It rationed the use of masks;
It did exhaustive contact tracing and testing in selected areas;
And it isolated suspected cases in designated facilities rather than hospitals or at home.
As a result, cases have been declining for weeks. At the peak there were more than 800 cases, and today the report was only 90 cases.
WHO is working in solidarity with other countries with community transmission to apply the lessons learned in Korea and elsewhere, and adapt them to the local context.”
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---18-march-2020
[1] https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/novel_coronavirus/th_siryou/kihon_h_0525.pdf
[1] 影響を与えたと表現したが､実際は政府の意を汲んだ提言をしていた可能性もある｡ただし､｢新型コロナウイルス感染症対策本｣｢新型コロナウイルス感染症対策専門家会議｣とも､議事概要しか作成されていないので検証することもできない｡
https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/novel_coronavirus/taisaku_honbu.html
[1] Appleはdriving､transit､walking､Googleはgrocery_and_pharmacy､parks､transit､workplaces､residentialについて集計している｡目視したところ｢乗り換え(駅) transit｣がともに緊急事態宣言中に最も大きく低下するので､これを用いた｡なお､Googleはベースラインからの変化率のデータだが､Appleはベースラインを100%とした移動度を提供しているので､100を差し引いて変化率とした｡
[1] https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/novel_coronavirus/th_siryou/kinkyutaiou_gaiyou_corona.pdf
[1] https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/novel_coronavirus/th_siryou/kihonhousin.pdf
[1] https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/novel_coronavirus/th_siryou/kihon_h(4.7).pdf
[1] https://corona.go.jp/expert-meeting/pdf/kihon_h_0525.pdf
[1]ただし､37.5度の熱があっても4日間は自宅で待機のように制約していた｡
参考文献
Ariadne-Labs (2020), "Emerging Covid-19 Success Story: South Korea Learned the Lessons of Mers," Our World in Data https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-koreaaccessed 2020/8/20.
Bonita, R., R. Beaglehole, and T. Kjellström (2006), Basic Epidemiology 2nd Edition.: 木原雅子､木原正博監訳『WHOの標準疫学』三煌社, 2008年http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2006/9241547073_jpn.pdf.
Furuse, Yuki, Sando Eiichiro, Tsuchiya Naho, Miyahara Reiko, Yasuda Ikkoh, K. Ko Yura, Saito Mayuko, Morimoto Konosuke, Imamura Takeaki, Shobugawa Yugo, Nagata Shohei, Jindai Kazuaki, Imamura Tadatsugu, Sunagawa Tomimasa, Suzuki Motoi, Nishiura Hiroshi, and Oshitani Hitoshi (2020), "Clusters of Coronavirus Disease in Communities, Japan, January–April 2020," Emerging Infectious Disease journal, 26 (9).
Linton, N. M., T. Kobayashi, Y. Yang, K. Hayashi, A. R. Akhmetzhanov, S. M. Jung, B. Yuan, R. Kinoshita, and H. Nishiura (2020), "Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data," J Clin Med, 9 (2).
Pollack, Todd and et al. (2020), "Emerging Covid-19 Success Story: Vietnam’s Commitment to Containment," Our World in Data https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-vietnam accessed 2020/8/20.
Shimizu, K., G. Wharton, H. Sakamoto, and E. Mossialos (2020), "Resurgence of Covid-19 in Japan," BMJ, 370, m3221.
WHO (2020), The Report of the Who China Joint Mission on Covid-19 Final Report: WHO https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf accessed 2020/02/29.
新型コロナウイルス感染症対策専門家会議 (2020a), "新型コロナウイルス感染症対策の状況分析・提言(2020 年 3 月 19 日)," https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000610566.pdf accessed 2020/08/22.
---- (2020b), "新型コロナウイルス感染症対策の状況分析・提言(2020 年 4 月 1 日)," https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000617992.pdf 2020/08/22.
尾内隆之 and 調麻佐志 (2020), "新型コロナウイルス感染症対策における科学と政治," 科学, 90 (6), 489-507.
錢瓊毓 (2020), "台湾におけるcovid-19対応," 日本医師会 COVID-19有識者会議 https://www.covid19-jma-medical-expert-meeting.jp/topic/3103 2020/8/20 アクセス.
